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Scientific basis for assessing the Pskem river flow based on various forecasting models

27-01-2026
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Authors

  • U BALKHIEV
    Hydrometeorological Research Institute
  • K GOFURJONOV
    Hydrometeorological Research Institute
  • D TURGUNOV
    Hydrometeorological Research Institute

Abstract

This article explores the possibilities of forecasting water discharge in the Piskom River basin based on meteorological data using Machine Learning (ML) models. The study establishes relationships between the Piskom River flow and meteorological factors using Random Forest, XGBoost, and LSTM models, with their accuracy compared through various evaluation metrics (MAE, RMSE, R², and NSE). The analysis demonstrates that the Random Forest model provides the highest accuracy in forecasting the water discharge of the Piskom River. The research results indicate that ML models can serve as an effective tool for preliminary assessment of river flow and water resource management

Published

27-01-2026

Issue

No. 3 (2025): HYDROMETEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING

Section

Articles

Downloads

  • PDF (Uzbek)

Keywords:

river basin river flow water discharge forecasting meteorological factors river flow forecasting models Machine Learning Random Forest XGBoost LSTM

How to Cite

BALKHIEV, U., GOFURJONOV, K., & TURGUNOV, D. (2026). Scientific basis for assessing the Pskem river flow based on various forecasting models. Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, 3, 57-67. https://nigmi-journal.uz/index.php/jhem/article/view/21
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References

Шульц В.Л., Машрапов Р. Ўрта Осиё гидрографияси. – Тошкент: Ўқитувчи, 1969. – 327 б.

Nishonov B. E., Abdurakhmanov, M. M. Evaluation of ERA5 reanalysis data with observed data in the Akhangaran River Basin // Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, 2025. №1. – PP. 28-38.

Kratzert F., Klotz D., Brenner C., Schulz K., Herrnegger M. Rainfall–runoff modelling using long short-term memory (LSTM) networks // Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2023. №2. – PP. 19-48.

Pedregosa, F., Varoquaux, G., Gramfort, A., Michel V., Thirion B., Grisel O., Duchesnay É. Machine Learning in Python // Journal of Machine Learning Research, 2021. №5. – PP. 23-39.

Электрон ресурслар:

UN “World Population Prospects 2022”. URL: https://www.un.org

Machine Learning Tutorial. URL: https://www.geeksforgeeks.org/machine-learning

XGBoost Tutorials. URL: https://xgboost.readthedocs.io/en/stable/tutorials/model.html

LSTM Tutorials. URL: https://scikit-learn.org/stable/modules/ensemble.html

License

Copyright (c) 2026 У. БАЛXИЕВ, К. ГОФУРЖОНОВ, Д. ТУРГУНОВ (Автор)

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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